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Evolving beyond "yes-or-no" decision-making

By Richard Worzel

The only reason to make decisions is so you can select the best actions. Since the future is inherently unpredictable, even to a professional futurist, it's often more effective to create options based on a range of possible scenarios rather than on a simple "yes-no" format.

Let me give you an example.

I was hired by a logistics firm to help them design future products and services. Since they served the financial services industry, we assembled their front-line people in a workshop setting and thought through how the financial services industry might change over the next 5 to 10 years.

The major drivers of change

Using proven scenario planning tools, we identified the major drivers of change affecting that industry, which helped us describe the most probable future scenarios.

Next, within each scenario, we defined what competitive pressures and needs financial companies would experience, and then what products my client could provide to support those needs. Once we had done that for all of the most likely scenarios, we were able to categorize the range of possible actions into three groups:

• Necessary in any scenario: Some needs would emerge regardless of what happened. For instance, the population will continue to age in any reasonable scenario, and that will affect the kinds of services the financial industry will need to supply, no matter which future comes to pass. Wherever we identified actions we could take that would be valuable across all scenarios, we placed those actions on a "start immediately" list.
• Likely to be useful: Some actions would be valuable in most, but not all possible futures. Hence, developing super-premium offerings will be important to the financial industry in every possible future unless the economy goes into a prolonged slump. Accordingly, actions tailored to address that premium market segment were fleshed out and initiated, but a careful watch was kept to make sure the economy doesn't go off the rails. If it does, emphasis on this area will be quickly curtailed.
• Might be useful: Some actions will be valuable in a few scenarios but not others. In such cases, a contingency plan was outlined, but not fully fleshed out, pending future developments that confirmed their usefulness. These contingency plans will allow my client to respond quickly and well in the event of a less likely, or surprise, scenario emerging.

Avoiding linear predictions

By avoiding a simple, linear prediction of the future, my clients were able to place themselves ahead of where their clients will be down the road, and to have the offerings they need ready when they need them.

The future will catch us all by surprise. Events like the terrorist attacks of 2001, the SARS epidemic of 2003, and hurricane Katrina proved that. Those who will profit most will be those who can recover most quickly and respond most constructively. Evolving beyond "yes-no" decisions gives you more options, and supplies more speed and power to your decision-making.

About the Author:

Richard Worzel is one of North America's leading futurists and strategic planners, as well as a Chartered Financial Analyst and the author of six best-selling books. He has spoken to more than a quarter of a million executives, business, sales, and marketing professionals about preparing for the future, and using innovation, change, and uncertainty as strategic weapons.

Richard's recent clients include IBM, Standard Life, Investors Group, MacLean Hunter Publishing, Xerox, Merrill Lynch, 3Com, Mackenzie Financial, and AIM Funds.