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How to plan for change in a "white water world"

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Moneyball and beyond: Key metrics for your favorite sports

October 24, 2007

In the smash bestseller Moneyball, Michael Lewis examined how the 2002 Oakland Athletics achieved a winning record with the smallest player payroll of any major league baseball team.

What does this have to do with performance management? Everything.

Moneyball is one of the clearest examples of performance management thinking – that is, finding the metrics that really matter and the sweet spots of information – that, in this case, helped the Oakland As rise above their richer competitors.

Just for fun, we put three sports fans to the test to find out how this kind of thinking could be applied to their favorite teams in three different sports.

Read on to hear what George Will, John Hierlihy, and Delbert Krause had to say about the metrics that matter in baseball, hockey, and football.

George Will: In baseball, count to 27 very, very slowly

Pulitzer Prize-winning columnist and Newsweek essayist, George F. Will is one of the foremost conservative voices in the U.S.

In addition to ABC News political analyst responsibilities, Will writes a twice-weekly column for The Washington Post syndicate that reaches nearly 500 newspapers throughout the United States, Canada, South America, Japan, Australia, and Europe.

In May he joined Senior Writer Kelsey Howarth at Cognos Government Forum to discuss the Moneyball concept and how his beloved Chicago Cubs would fare in the 2007 season.

KH: You have called yourself a pessimist, but not when it comes to the Chicago Cubs. That's your team of choice, correct?

"People always say baseball doesn't have a clock but it does. There are 27 ticks. They're outs and the object of the game is to not make an out."

GW: "That's right. I'm a fatalist!"

KH: How are they going to do this year?

GW: "Fortunately, they're in the right neighborhood, and that is the National League Central, which is the weakest division in baseball so almost anyone can win it.

"The Cubs have a chance to make it into the playoffs. If they get to the post season it is as Billy Beane, the famous general manager of the Oakland As said, 'It's a crapshoot.'

"Any team can get hot in a seven game series. So that's the Cubs' plan for this year: stagger through and get lucky."

KH: I just finished reading Moneyball. At Cognos we help companies find the sweet spots of information – the metrics that really matter. If you owned the Cubs, what metrics would you have them focus on? Where do they need some help?

GW: "Billy Beane, the star of Moneyball, is a very close friend of mine and I think he's got it right.

"People always say baseball doesn't have a clock but it does. There are 27 ticks. They're outs and the object of the game is to not make an out.

"Hence the great emphasis that Billy Beane has brought to baseball on on-base percentage.

"Walks. Hits. Move the runners. Don't make an out because you've only got 27 of them. When they're gone, you lose."

John Hierlihy: On the ice, puck possession matters most

John Hierlihy is a personal branding specialist and consultant with Feldman Daxon Partners, an executive search and career transition firm. He is also the Founder and President of Athlete Ventures, a company dedicated to helping athletes transition into viable careers and find business opportunities after their playing days are over.

John works closely with organizations such as the Professional Athlete Transition Institute and the Professional Hockey Players' Association (PHPA) and, as such, is the perfect person to tell us the metrics that matter in hockey.

KH: Can we get you to share with us some metrics that hockey teams should be focusing on?

JH: "I think what's really interesting about Moneyball is not only the system introduced by Billy Beane and Sandy Alderson, but that they introduced innovation to a very conservative game, one that stands by its traditions in both playing and thinking.

"Metrics around goals and points are fine, but I would like to see more metrics around who is controlling the game and in what areas of the ice."

"It is important to note that Beane and Alderson were not afraid to go against the norm.

"They had a belief and what that belief allowed them to do was focus on the sweet spots that mattered most to them. With a plan in place, they were then able to pick the metrics that fit into their plan.

"With respect to hockey, there are all kinds of different metrics that you can use.

"Soccer and football place a big emphasis on ball control and possession, and hockey should be no different."

"Metrics around goals and points are fine, but I would like to see more metrics around who is controlling the game and in what areas of the ice. Team sports in my view, is about controlling and dictating play.

"In soccer and football they place a big emphasis on ball control and possession, and hockey should be no different.

"If you read what Beane and Alderson were promoting, it was control, placing emphasis on hitters controlling the pitch count and strike zone, and asking his pitchers to do the same thing. They poured through statistics to identify the players that controlled the game.

"The other thing that I think is important is to really measure the team and the players on giveaways and takeaways.

"Are you just giving the puck away when you have it on your stick? Are you doing anything positive with it and generating the right kind of scoring chances?"

KH: Who is your favorite team and what should they be doing this season?

JH: "I grew up loving the Montreal Canadiens and watching them win 4 consecutives cups in the 70s.

"That team controlled the game in many different ways. The current team, for example, seem to regularly get out-shot in their games, which tells me they are not controlling the play.

"I would love to see Montreal focus on controlling the play and increasing the shots they generate. They need to come up with a system to get their players to generate more scoring opportunities and generate more shots.

"I would even take that a step farther and focus on the shots not just being generated from the outside but in the vital areas: "in the slot," so to speak, like basketball from inside the paint.

"The Canadiens need to know where their scoring opportunities are coming from and then try to bring these opportunities into the system of every player. As they do not have an offensive superstar like a Guy Lafleur, or now, a Crosby or Jagr type player, they have to have a system that can be the focal point of the offense."

Delbert Krause: In football, is it yards per carry or defence against the pass?

Delbert Krause is director of product management for Planning at Cognos. He combines a formal education in finance and accounting with 20 years' experience in financial software to deliver solutions that support financial users across a wide range of industries.

An expert in planning and consolidation in the Office of Finance, here he talks about another of his passions, NFL Football.

KH: What would you say are the most important metrics in football?

DK: "There are lots of metrics to take a look at. Individually, you can look at quarterback ratings, defense overall, individual offence and defense ratings, quarterback and running back ratings, and so many more.

"But where things become really interesting is in the comparison of metrics at any point in time. If you have a quarterback that's highly rated, but playing a defense that is rated highly against the pass, then you have to take that into account when you're picking who will win.

"Where things become really interesting is in the comparison of metrics at any point in time."

"As always, statistics in and of themselves need to be measured not just for their own kind of net worth, but also how they compare at any given point in time against other metrics."

"You also have to take into account soft information like weather, injuries, and what you might call ‘instinct metrics.'

"If a team is on a four-game losing streak and they're playing an interdivisional rival and they're on the road, and they haven't won on the road in this team's hometown for three years then they might be due for a win purely because of the landscape of how they ended up at that game."

KH: One of the metrics I disregard is the interception metric as it pertains to the quality of a quarterback. A lot of people can contribute to an interception and it seems to be pretty unfair to blame the quarterback.

KH: Are there any other metrics that you consider to be less relevant?

DK: "The interception rating is a very classic example because interceptions can be the result of strong defensive pressure, poor offensive protection, or a lack of options of people to throw to.

"If a team only has one receiver in the top 50 in the NFL it means that the quarterback is throwing to that person all the time and obviously interceptions are more frequent.

"Average yards per carry is another one that can be deceptive.

"Some good basic metrics for that team – and for every team – are the quarterback rating, average yards in offense and defense, and pass and rush ratings on defense and offense."

"The average yards per carry can be anywhere from say three to five yards and it's pretty hard to get that kind of consistency. You might have three runs of two yards, and a run of seven, and a run of twenty-five and the average works out to whatever that works out to."

KH: Who is your favorite team and what metrics should they be focusing on?

DK: "My favorite team is the Pittsburgh Steelers. They have a new head coach this year, and they're changing the way they run their offense and defense.

"I think some good basic metrics for that team – and for every team – are the quarterback rating, average yards in offense and defense, and pass and rush ratings on defense and offense.

"Those metrics alone will tell you an awful lot about your team. They don't take into account everything happening on offense, but by combining those metrics you can tell pretty accurately if your team can move the ball effectively."

KH: My favorite team is the Green Bay Packers. Am I going to be happy this year or a bit disappointed?

DK: "Well, define the level of happiness you're looking for (laughing).

"They won't make the playoffs, but they'll probably finish 8-8 again this year like they did last year. They've improved their defense, but they've designed an offensive scheme around a tight end and a running back – neither of whom are of real quality caliber."

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