BUSINESS

Think you know how to think? Think again

March 7, 2007

When it comes to thinking and analysis, most of us get a failing grade. And according to Morgan Jones, it's not just an amusing foible of human behavior; it's a multi-billion expense for organizations.

Jones is a former CIA analyst and author of The Thinker's Toolkit. The major problem, he says, is in our brains, not our bytes: data warehouses and business intelligence give you the information, but they don't help you think.

Most of us, he says, don't approach decisions with the proper sense of analytical rigor. And we bristle at the mere suggestion that we should structure our analysis of a problem.

Common analytic "sins"

Jones points to a number of common analytic sins that most of us recognize and commit:

We come up with conclusions before we fully understand or define the problem.
Having missed our chance to understand the problem, we start our analysis with solutions we intuitively favor.
We confuse discussing a problem with analyzing it.
We focus on the substance of arguments rather than the process of the analysis.

Why do we do this? Jones contends that most of us have never been taught any methods for structured analysis.

Different approaches to problem-solving

The author offers 14 problem-solving techniques in his book, including:

Restating the problem so you fully understand it.
Detailing the Pros, Cons, and Fixes for the Cons for all options.
Sorting data, using time lines to put information in context.
Following a decision or yes/no tree to identify and eliminate options one by one.
Setting evaluation criteria, weighting the criteria, and then comparing each option against another one by one.

In this issue of Performance Perspectives from Cognos, an IBM Company, we look at the first technique on the list – Problem Restatement. Probably one of the simplest methods and yet one of the most powerful, it shows how by structuring your analysis, you can gain more value from your BI investments and drive better decision-making.

Problem restatement – an example

The Problem Restatement technique addresses one of the sins of analytical thinking – not fully understanding the problem. This technique challenges your thinking, your biases, and opens you up to solutions you may not have considered.

Consider this scenario: A man finds a pool of water on his new waterbed. After checking the whole bed, he can't find the source of the leak. The next evening, the water is back. He takes the bed apart, drains, and refills it but still can't find the leak. He returns the bed and buys a regular mattress.

That evening, he finds a damp patch in the middle of his new bed. Looking up, he sees a leak in the ceiling from the plumbing upstairs.

In this scenario, the man defined his problem as "How can I fix my leak?" rather than, "What's the source of water on my bed?"

How to do it

Problem Restatement is a simple technique: take a few minutes and recast the problem in as many different ways as you can. Capture all of the ideas. This helps eliminate any bias, and gives your mind freedom to brainstorm, or pursue divergent thinking.

Stuck? It's not surprising. There's a lot of talk about brainstorming, but few do it or facilitate it well. Jones offers a number of ways to help:

Turn the problem on its head: If the problem is: "How do we encourage more people to come to the company picnic," take the opposite view: "How do we discourage people from coming?" This opens up whole new areas of thinking and breaks through biases.
Broaden the focus/Restate the problem in a larger context: Rather than asking yourself "Should I change jobs?" (which has a yes/no response), ask "How can I achieve job security?" The problem is now clearer, and open to more options
Ask why: Ask "Why" of your original problem statement, and then recast the problem based on the results: "Should I change jobs?" Why? The company isn't doing well and I may lose my position. "How do I achieve job security?"
Redirect the focus: Identify the crux of the question but take a different angle. In this way "Should I change jobs?" can become: "How could I start my own business?"

Restating the problem is a divergent – or creative – method that opens you up to a range of alternatives, revealing new perspectives you may have overlooked by simply going with your first responses.

The right approach gives you the right information

With a well-understood and defined problem, you can put yourself in a better position to ask the right questions and get the right data to solve it. This small amount of preparation will help you get more value from your investments in business intelligence and other performance management technologies, and make better decisions.

Find Out More

Sources

¹ Morgan Jones, The Thinker's Toolkit, New York, New York, Three Rivers Press, 1995.